Berlin Election Drama: Four Acts to Reshape German Politics
Berlin, March 6, 2026 – Germany is on the cusp of a pivotal election year, featuring five state and three municipal elections, which could significantly impact the federal government in Berlin and alter the nation’s political landscape. The first ballots will be cast this Sunday in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, marking the beginning of what is being described as a four-act election drama.
Act One: Coalition Stability Under Scrutiny
The initial act of this political drama unfolds primarily in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, where new state parliaments will be elected on Sunday and March 22, respectively. Within Berlin’s grand coalition of CDU and SPD, there was a quiet hope for a balanced outcome: the CDU securing victory in Baden-Württemberg and reclaiming the Minister-President’s office after 15 years, while the SPD maintained power in Rhineland-Palatinate with Minister-President Alexander Schweitzer. Such a result would have been acceptable to both federal parties, with minimal immediate repercussions for their coalition work. However, recent polls from Baden-Württemberg have eroded this confidence.
The CDU, which had enjoyed a stable lead in polls since autumn 2023, at one point reaching a 16-point advantage, is now only marginally ahead of the ruling Greens, and even tied in the ZDF “Politbarometer.” The SPD, meanwhile, has slipped below ten percent, risking its worst-ever result of 11 percent from 2021. Should CDU’s top candidate, Manuel Hagel, lose to former Federal Minister of Agriculture and ex-Green Party leader Cem Özdemir, it would be a significant setback for the Union. They would then need a victory in Rhineland-Palatinate to offset this defeat, likely leading to a confrontational final two weeks of campaigning between the two Berlin coalition partners.
Act Two: Reform Debates Between Elections
The outcomes of these two state elections will influence how the Union and SPD approach major social reforms. Poorer results for either side are expected to intensify the need for internal profiling within the coalition. Between the March and September election months, the coalition aims to advance its key reform projects. Proposals for healthcare and health insurance reform are expected by the end of March, with the pension commission set to conclude its work by mid-year.
“The timetable is set, it has been agreed,” stated Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) to RTL/n-tv after last week’s CDU party conference. He anticipates that legislative work will be completed in the second half of the year, emphasizing its importance for the government’s activities. Personnel questions could also re-emerge after the March elections, despite Merz’s vehement denials. In May, Union parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn, criticized by some for lacking control over the faction, will seek re-election. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil is also under pressure following a dismal election result at last year’s party conference.
Act Three: Will the AfD Rise to Power?
The most anticipated elections of the year are scheduled for September in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt. The central question revolves around whether the AfD will come to power for the first time. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, recent polls show the AfD at 35 to 37 percent, still some distance from power. In Saxony-Anhalt, they stand at 39 to 40 percent, not yet an absolute majority, but significantly close.
Even if an absolute majority is not achieved, government formation in these two eastern states is expected to be challenging. According to polls, the so-called centrist parties, namely CDU and SPD, are far from securing a majority. The Left Party, AfD, and BSW collectively exceed 50 percent in both states.
Act Four: Breathing Room or Picking Up the Pieces?
Such a scenario could force the CDU into a fundamental decision that no one is currently willing to discuss. In 2018, a CDU party conference ruled out coalitions and similar collaborations with both the AfD and the Left Party. However, without the votes of one of these parties, forming a stable majority government might prove impossible. What then? So far, no one in the Union has an answer to this question.
Chancellor Merz’s rejection of coalitions with the AfD sounded somewhat harsher at last week’s party conference than his stance on cooperation with the Left. Nevertheless, he fundamentally rules out both. The Union will likely try to suppress this debate until after the elections. Should the AfD lead a state government, the implications would be far-reaching. The AfD’s leader would become a member of the Conference of Minister-Presidents, participating in interstate decisions and regularly visiting the Chancellery. Holger Münch, head of the Federal Criminal Police Office, recently pointed out in the “Tagesspiegel” that the party would then gain access to “sensitive and protected data and information.” He questioned how openly information could then be shared within the federal system.
Source: dpa-infocom, dpa:260306-930-776335/1, radiowestfalica.de
