Germany clearly holds a leading role in the European Union. This position rests on its strong economy, central location in Europe, and a growing readiness to guide the continent through increasingly difficult times. For a long time, Germany was marked by a kind of “leadership avoidance” and a strong preference for acting with others rather than alone. But recent geopolitical changes and internal shifts have pushed Germany into a more confident, though still cooperative, leadership position. This article looks at how Germany’s influence developed, the different sides of its EU leadership, its impact on policy and crisis management, key partnerships, public opinion, challenges, and future steps to strengthen this central role.
Germany’s Role in the EU: Historical Context and Foundations
Post-war Evolution of German Influence
After World War II, Germany chose a path of deep change and deliberately avoided open power politics. Its post-war identity was built on military restraint, strict budget rules, and heavy dependence on the United States for security. Germany adopted a “civilian power” model, focusing on economic recovery, diplomacy, and soft power instead of military strength. The creation of the European Coal and Steel Community, the forerunner of today’s EU, was strongly supported by the US and helped end centuries of conflict between France and Germany, laying the groundwork for an unprecedented period of peace and prosperity.
Because of this history, Germany was for many decades comfortable playing a supportive role, often leaving initiative to Paris or Washington. Its economy grew into Europe’s strongest, but this did not automatically turn into bold, independent leadership in foreign and security policy. The “debt brake,” written into the constitution in 2009, showed Germany’s long-term commitment to tight public finances and added to its image as financially careful but militarily restrained.
From Leadership Hesitance to EU Centrality
The idea that Germany suffered from a “leadership avoidance complex” lasted for a long time. Successive governments preferred “leading from the center” (Führung aus der Mitte), usually together with France, instead of asserting leadership on their own. This cautious style came from historical guilt and a serious doubt about whether clear leadership by Germany was desirable or even possible.
But the 21st century brought a chain of shocks that weakened this reluctance. The 2008 financial crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic all showed the same pattern: when Europe’s stability was at risk, Germany’s money and political decisions often decided the outcome. These crises, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, and growing doubts about the US as a reliable ally forced a major rethink in Berlin. The issue stopped being whether Germany should lead; it became how Europe can adjust to the fact that Germany already does lead, driven by its economic size, population, and geopolitical weight.
What Does EU Leadership Mean for Germany?
Political, Economic, and Security Dimensions
For Germany, leadership in the EU covers politics, the economy, and security. Economically, Germany’s size and industrial base make it the main anchor of the European economy. With almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP, its views on price stability, strict budgets, and export strength have become the model for Europe. The European Central Bank is based in Frankfurt, which underlines this economic central role.
Politically, Germany’s leadership shows through strong, but often carefully balanced, influence over EU policy and strategy. This usually means building coalitions and convincing partners instead of trying to dominate them. Its central position on the map makes Germany a natural hub for European integration, especially at a time of renewed competition between major powers. In security, Germany is now going through a major change, moving away from near-total military restraint toward a more active role in European defense. This shift responds to new security risks and uncertainty about long-standing alliances.
Key Expectations from EU Member States
Other EU members have high expectations of Germany. Many hope Berlin will show clearer leadership, especially by keeping up military and financial aid for Ukraine, reducing doubts about the transatlantic relationship, and renewing EU unity. Partners expect higher German defense spending, reforms to make decision-making in Berlin and Brussels quicker, and efforts to repair and deepen ties with countries such as France and Poland. They do not want Germany to dominate, but to act as a primus inter pares – first among equals – that brings sides together and builds agreement without acting alone.
This cooperative style matters for how the EU deals with difficult problems, from economic shocks to external threats. Member states look to Germany for money, but also for strategy and a long-term plan for Europe’s place in a fast-changing world. The hope is that Germany will use its structural strengths and trusted relations to turn these expectations into effective common action that is also seen as fair and legitimate.
How Germany Shapes EU Policy and Strategy
Driving Economic Policy in the Eurozone
Germany’s influence on economic policy in the Eurozone is clear. Its focus on budget discipline and price stability has deeply shaped the Eurozone’s rules and institutions. During the 2008 financial crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis, Germany’s financial capacity and political stance were decisive for the rescue mechanisms and conditions attached to them. Its growth model, based on strong manufacturing and exports, has become a reference point for many other EU economies.
Germany has also been central in debates on deeper financial integration. In the past, Berlin was cautious, but Russia’s war against Ukraine and doubts about US reliability have increased support inside Germany for projects such as a European capital markets union. This would help European companies raise money more easily and compete with US markets, and shows that Germany is more open to deeper economic integration as a way to strengthen Europe overall.
Shaping Security and Defense Initiatives
Germany’s shift in security and defense is one of the most important recent changes. Long defined by a reluctance to use military force, Berlin now aims to take a leading role in European defense projects. This change comes from a realization that the world is becoming more dangerous and that the US security guarantee may not always be reliable. A change to the constitution to relax strict debt rules and allow very large defense and security spending – once unthinkable – signals this new approach. Around €600 billion over 14 years has been set aside for defense, in addition to the normal budget, and there is a €500 billion special fund for infrastructure, much of it linked to security needs.
Germany is also using “minilateralism” – smaller, flexible cooperation formats within the broader EU and NATO framework. These include the E3 (Germany, France, UK), E3+ (adding Poland and Italy), and the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, Poland). These groupings help align views, coordinate industry, and shape common positions before formal EU or NATO meetings. In this way, Germany can lead in security and defense while calming fears that it wants to dominate.
Leadership in EU Crisis Response
During major EU crises, Germany has often been the key actor shaping the response. This was true in the financial and Eurozone crises, the refugee crisis, and in recent security tensions with Russia. While earlier governments were sometimes seen as slow or hesitant, the current government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has presented itself as more active. His agenda places greater weight on strengthening the armed forces and rethinking Europe’s security order.
The creation of a National Security Council and a crisis unit in the Chancellor’s office supports more coordinated foreign and security policy. This new structure aims to end the pattern of “German abstentions” in EU votes caused by disagreements between ministries. It gives Germany a clearer voice in EU crisis management and a more unified strategic direction.
Germany’s Leadership during Major EU Crises
Economic Crises and the EU Recovery Fund
Germany’s status as Europe’s economic mainstay has been especially visible during times of crisis. In the 2008 financial crash, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the COVID-19 shock, Germany’s financial strength and political choices were central to the EU response. Its strong economy and focus on stability helped prevent deeper collapse, often requiring large German contributions and tough negotiations on the conditions for support.
Germany was also key in shaping the EU Recovery Fund. Although it had long opposed joint borrowing, the scale of the pandemic pushed Berlin to accept common debt to finance grants and loans. This marked a notable practical shift in German economic thinking in the face of a serious European emergency. The idea that Germany must “pay to play” has become a recurring feature of its crisis management role, though always combined with insistence on solid budget rules.
Zeitenwende: Leadership during Security Challenges
The “Zeitenwende” (“turning point”) speech by former Chancellor Olaf Scholz after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a major change in German security policy. It declared the end of an era of extreme military restraint and promised a stronger Bundeswehr and higher defense spending. While implementation at first moved slowly, the Merz government has pushed harder to turn these promises into reality. Germany is now the second-largest military donor to Ukraine after the US, a sharp break with its older, more cautious stance.
Chancellor Merz stresses that rearmament is about protecting peace in Europe against Russian attacks on infrastructure and digital networks. The plan to spend 5% of GDP on defense and the €500 billion special infrastructure fund show the scale of this effort. Germany aims to become the main pillar of Europe’s conventional deterrence. This more active role reflects a growing belief in Berlin that Europe must be able to defend itself even if US support weakens.
Partnerships and Cooperation: Germany and Key EU States
Reviving the Franco-German Engine
The Franco-German partnership has long driven European integration. Under the previous government, relations with France cooled, and this slowed progress in the EU. Chancellor Merz has put special effort into reviving this “engine,” calling the partnership of “outstanding importance” for all of Europe. His first foreign trip was to Paris, signaling his wish for a close working relationship with President Emmanuel Macron.
French leaders hope the Merz government will inject new energy into the partnership. His warnings about US unpredictability and his support for greater European independence have been welcomed in Paris. A “3 plus 3” format now brings together the German Chancellor and French President with their foreign and defense ministers to discuss giving France’s nuclear force (force de frappe) a “European dimension.” The aim is to create shared strategic guidelines that will last beyond shifts in French domestic politics and keep the Franco-German engine running.
Collaboration with Poland and the Weimar Triangle
Germany’s relationship with Poland is especially important because Poland is Germany’s largest neighbor in East-Central Europe. The two countries share a difficult history, and improving ties with Poland has long been a central German foreign policy goal. Relations suffered under the previous Polish government, but have improved since Donald Tusk became Prime Minister. Merz visited Warsaw right after Paris, underlining the priority he gives to this partnership.
Better Polish-German ties are also key to reviving the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, Poland). This format can help coordinate EU policy and share leadership within both the EU and NATO. Germany has increased its military engagement with Poland, including the deployment of Eurofighters and Patriot air defense systems, showing a clear focus on regional security. Even with Poland’s internal political tensions, a stronger Weimar Triangle offers a chance for Germany to connect eastern and western parts of the EU and support a more united security policy.
Public Perception: How Do Germans View Their Country’s EU Role?
Recent Survey Data and Key Findings
German public opinion about the country’s EU role is mixed and changing. Many people support a stronger German role in Europe, especially in defense and security, but there is also unease. Post-election polls show support for the new government’s more active approach to strategy, but also criticism that these shifts were not clearly explained before the vote. Many citizens feel that debates about Germany’s role in Europe are not open enough.
Backing for rearmament and aid to Ukraine is real, but not guaranteed. The rise of far-right (AfD) and radical left parties has made domestic politics more divided and pulled European policy into the center of disputes. These parties often favor less EU involvement and more national control, creating a difficult background for a government that wants to lead in Europe. German foreign policy makers watch public opinion closely, as steady domestic support is necessary for strong and credible action in the EU.
Desired Direction for Future EU Policy
Despite these tensions, many Germans want Europe to become more independent and self-sufficient. Merz’s early statement that Europe’s “absolute priority” should be to become independent from the US as soon as possible, though later softened, spoke to a growing feeling. Worries about Russia, doubts about the US, and awareness of Europe’s own weaknesses all feed this desire for strategic autonomy. Many people favor policies that strengthen European defense, deepen economic ties in the EU, and give Europe a more united voice globally.
At the same time, the German public remains attached to caution and compromise. People mostly support a leadership style where Germany acts as a primus inter pares instead of a dominant power. They expect Germany to help link North and South, East and West, and to support inclusive decision-making. The government must match the wish for a stronger Europe with the public’s preference for careful, cooperative action, while dealing with a more fragmented party system at home.
What Are the Main Challenges to Germany’s EU Leadership Role?
Domestic Political and Economic Constraints
Germany’s leading role in the EU faces several internal obstacles. The party system is more divided, with strong growth of the far-right AfD and new radical left populist forces. This makes European policy a major battleground instead of an area of broad agreement. Though many still support higher defense spending and help for Ukraine, this support could weaken if living standards stagnate or fall.
Conflicts inside the governing camp are another source of difficulty. While the main leadership circle tries to stay united, parts of the SPD still call for renewed economic cooperation with Russia, and fiscally conservative members of the CDU question the loosening of debt rules. Germany also lacks long experience with active leadership in security and defense policy. A long-standing habit of avoiding hard choices and trying to please everyone (Sowohl als Auch) runs against the nature of leadership, which often requires clear, sometimes unpopular, decisions.
Balancing North-South and East-West EU Divides
Another major challenge lies in handling deep differences inside the EU. States in the North and East, close to Russia, tend to push for strong defense and a tough line on Moscow. In contrast, countries in the South and Southwest may see Russia as more distant and focus more on instability and migration from the Middle East and North Africa. These varied threat perceptions and economic interests make it difficult to build one shared strategy.
Germany’s use of small-group formats with like-minded countries can help find compromises and pull together similar interests. But these arrangements must be managed carefully to avoid leaving others behind or creating fears of a “two-speed” EU. Keeping dialogue open with more difficult partners, such as Hungary, which often leans toward pro-Russian positions, is another test of Germany’s ability to lead while still holding the Union together.
Managing External Pressures and Geopolitical Risks
On top of internal issues, Germany faces strong outside pressures that shape its EU leadership. A possible second Trump presidency in the US brings worries about NATO’s future and US defense guarantees. This pushes Germany and others in Europe to build more of their own strategic capabilities, which demands money, time, and political courage.
The war in Ukraine and Russia’s aggressive stance remain immediate threats that require sustained European support and unity. At the same time, Germany must handle complex ties with China, balancing trade interests against concerns about dependency and political influence. Tensions in the Middle East and broader global instability add further strain. All these factors demand clear thinking from Berlin and strong efforts to keep EU partners aligned in an increasingly unstable world.
Policy Recommendations for Strengthening Germany’s EU Leadership
Boosting European Security and Strategic Autonomy
If Germany wants to firmly secure its leadership role, it needs to keep pushing its ambitious agenda on European security and strategic autonomy. This means keeping defense spending high and helping build a truly integrated European defense industry. Berlin should support measures to simplify arms procurement, promote joint research and development, and improve the ability of different European armies to work together. The long-term aim is to lower Europe’s heavy reliance on US forces and build the capacity and will to protect itself.
Germany should also back a broad view of strategic autonomy that includes critical technologies, energy supply, digital networks, and key supply chains. This involves leading efforts to set EU-wide rules that protect important sectors from outside pressure and give Europe more freedom to act. Visible progress in these areas would help reassure partners that Germany is serious about building a safer and more independent Europe.
Promoting Inclusive and Cooperative Policy-Making
Germany’s structural weight is clear, but the success of its leadership depends heavily on how it uses that weight. Long-lasting influence will only be possible if Berlin keeps promoting inclusive and cooperative decision-making in the EU. This means constant engagement with all member states, listening carefully to their concerns, and building broad support instead of pushing through German preferences.
Germany should refine its approach of “cooperative leadership,” based on persuasion, shared goals, and modesty. This includes taking smaller countries’ worries seriously, working to connect North and South, East and West, and pushing for compromises that bring benefits across the Union. By repeatedly showing respect for partners and supporting multilateral methods, Germany can ease fears of dominance, spread a sense of joint ownership of EU policies, and strengthen both the legitimacy and effectiveness of its leadership role.
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