CDU Loses Ground in New Berlin Poll Ahead of September Elections
Berlin, April 29 – The election for the Berlin House of Representatives on September 20 promises to be highly suspenseful. A new survey indicates that the CDU, led by Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, is losing ground. In the representative survey conducted by the Infratest Dimap opinion research institute on behalf of RBB, the Christian Democrats now only command 19 percent of the vote. This marks a decrease from previous weeks and months, where their support had been relatively stable at around 22 percent.
Following closely behind are the Greens, the Left Party, and the AfD, each polling at 18 percent. All three parties show a slight upward trend compared to previous surveys. The SPD, however, performs somewhat weaker at 14 percent. The BSW and FDP would fail to enter the House of Representatives, both registering 3 percent, while other parties collectively account for 7 percent.
Only Three-Party Coalitions Possible
Based on these figures, the current ruling coalition of CDU and SPD, in power since 2023, would no longer hold a majority. Realistically, after the September 20 election, two coalition options involving three parties each appear possible: an alliance of CDU, Greens, and SPD, or a revival of the coalition that governed until 2023, comprising SPD, the Left Party, and the Greens.
Significant Dissatisfaction with the Senate
The current CDU-SPD governing alliance is facing considerable dissatisfaction, according to the survey. Only 17 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction or great satisfaction with the work of the Berlin Senate. RBB reports that this is the lowest approval rating among all state governments in Germany. In a nationwide comparison of satisfaction with state premiers, Wegner also holds the lowest position with 17 percent.
In the repeat election for the House of Representatives in 2023, the CDU emerged as the clear winner with 28.2 percent of the second votes. The SPD and Greens each secured 18.4 percent, with the Social Democrats slightly ahead by a few votes. The Left Party garnered 12.2 percent, and the AfD 9.1 percent. The FDP, with 4.6 percent, failed to re-enter the House of Representatives.
Uncertainties Due to Decreased Party Loyalty
For the current survey, Infratest Dimap interviewed 1,155 people online and by telephone between April 23 and April 27. The survey period coincides with the resignation of the non-partisan Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson, who held office for the CDU, amidst a scandal involving anti-Semitism funding.
Election polls are generally subject to uncertainties. Decreasing party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to accurately weight the collected data. Fundamentally, surveys only reflect public opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions for the election outcome.
Source: Berliner Abendblatt, dpa
