First Decline in Refugee Numbers Since 2011: Germany’s Shifting Migration Landscape
Berlin, March 15 – Germany has experienced a notable shift in its migration landscape, with the number of refugees living in the country declining for the first time since 2011. According to a response from the federal government to a query by the Left Party parliamentary group, approximately 3.53 million asylum seekers were residing in Germany as of December 31, 2025. This represents a decrease of around 17,000 refugees compared to the previous year.
Long-Term Development: A Look Back at Key Migration Waves
The overall number of refugees living in Germany saw a significant increase in 2015, nearly doubling compared to the previous year. This surge was largely attributed to Russia’s military intervention in the Syrian civil war, supporting then-President Bashar al-Assad.
Following the Taliban’s takeover in 2021, the number of Afghan asylum seekers arriving in Germany also rose. A much larger influx occurred in 2022 when Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leading to approximately one million Ukrainian nationals seeking refuge in Germany within a few months. These individuals are granted protection under an EU directive for temporary protection and are not required to apply for asylum.
The number of people applying for asylum for the first time in Germany has been declining since autumn 2023. While nearly 230,000 initial asylum applications were filed in 2024, this figure dropped to around 113,000 in the past year.
Reasons Behind the Decline: Border Controls and Policy Changes
Several factors contribute to the slight decrease in refugee numbers by the end of 2025. Enhanced border controls play a significant role. Controls are now in place at all German land borders, despite this not being the norm within the Schengen area, and the intensity of these controls has increased. Furthermore, Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) issued an order in May to generally reject asylum seekers at the borders.
Beyond internal policies, there has also been an overall reduction in the number of asylum seekers arriving in Europe. Additionally, many of those who entered in 2025 were Venezuelans, who are primarily drawn to Spain due to language and currently more liberal migration policies.
A crucial reason for the decline in Germany is the overthrow of Syria’s long-term ruler in December 2024. Moreover, many Syrians who arrived between 2014 and 2016 now meet the requirements for naturalization, meaning they are no longer counted as refugees in the statistics.
Last year, there were 22,787 deportations, an increase from 20,084 in 2024, when individuals were returned to their home countries or to European countries responsible for their asylum procedures.
Impact of the ‘Traffic Light’ Coalition’s Reforms
The ‘Traffic Light’ coalition government (SPD, Greens, and FDP) introduced reforms that have impacted the naturalization process. The waiting period for naturalization applications has been shortened, allowing eligible individuals to be naturalized after five years instead of eight.
The Opportunity Residence Act, enacted by the coalition, was in effect until the end of 2025. It was designed for individuals who had been tolerated, permitted, or held a residence permit in Germany for at least five years as of October 31, 2022. They and their family members could receive a temporary residence permit for 18 months. After this period, permanent residency could be granted to those who were primarily self-sufficient, spoke German, had no criminal record, and could prove a clear identity, or had undertaken all reasonable measures to clarify their identity.
Approximately 43 percent of eligible individuals utilized the Opportunity Residence Act, with around 28,000 people securing a right to stay. However, nearly 10,000 foreigners failed and reverted to tolerated status. For about 15,000 individuals with an opportunity residence, the outcome is still pending.
Other Forms of Admission or Right to Stay
Other avenues for admission or the right to stay include humanitarian or international law grounds. In recent years, approximately 38,000 people from Afghanistan, including former local staff of German institutions, have been admitted. According to the federal government, from 1993 to December 31, 2025, a total of 214,940 individuals from the states of the former Soviet Union entered Germany under the regulated admission procedure for Jewish immigrants.
Another pathway is ‘resettlement,’ where the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) proposes particularly vulnerable individuals for admission. German authorities conduct interviews and security checks on-site. The black-red coalition had agreed to largely end humanitarian admission programs and not to initiate new ones. Consequently, only a few individuals, for example, from Sudan and Eritrea, have recently arrived as resettlement refugees, where the admission process was already well underway during the government change.
Individuals Obligated to Leave Germany
As of the end of 2025, approximately 232,000 individuals were obligated to leave Germany. Many of them originate from Turkey, Iraq, or Afghanistan. A year prior, this figure was around 221,000. Nearly 191,000 of those obligated to leave as of December 31, 2025, held a ‘Duldung’ (tolerated status). Tolerated individuals are those who are obligated to leave but cannot be deported for specific reasons, such as lacking identification documents or being ill.
Source: https://www.radiohochstift.de/nachrichten/nrw-und-die-welt/berlin-trendwende-warum-jetzt-etwas-weniger-gefluechtete-da-sind.html
